Ammo shortage - supply and demand?

Dave H.
[subject]
Saturday, October 10, 2020, 07:45 (2137 days ago)

Saturday morning musings.....why are we still experiencing such a shortage in loaded ammo and components?

I live on the gulf coast and we've had - as you all know - an active tropical season this year. But *every* year we prepare. And every season the local talk always turns to preparing for storms. With the hit from Sally and close calls from Laura and now Delta, the region always bounces back. We may be without fuel for a few days, and your general provisions, but within a week to ten days everything is pretty much back to normal. And this year we've had CV19 to deal with - and that prompted many to stock up on stuff believing they would be under quarantine for a long time.
But the law of supply and demand always snaps everything back to order......EXCEPT ammo and components it seems.

Why is that??

In a properly functioning marketplace, demand gets manufactures to make products and the logistics handle shipping and the distribution points pricing (with input from the logistics and manufactures - I think we all know how it works).

So why is it so different with loaded ammo and components?? It seems all my LGS and on-line sources are out and have been since early summer, with CV19 and the riots....is it because of the pro-longed nature of the riots? I don't think so, because, again, why aren't the manufacturers pumping out product? Or if they are, where is it all going?? I just can't seem to make sense of it this morning.

I'm empathetic to your feelings, I can see

WB
[subject]
Saturday, October 10, 2020, 08:13 (2137 days ago) @ Dave H.

it and also sometimes give in to my suspicious nature. But the situation is complex, I truly do not believe outside forces are suppressing the supply.

First off us guys are buying cases of materials (preparing) way ahead of time. Trying to now for newly woke folks is a bit late. This election cycle the stakes and threat is real and it's not been this tense before in my lifetime. Not that I can remember. The concerns are valid. But if you like hunting up stuff and have the money you can obtain. The COVID thing has hurt things on many levels. Manufacturers, shippers, wholesalers, are all being hurt by employees not being able or desiring to work. It's stopped production and supply, or slowed it greatly. By my figuring and what I can see, it's largely the "Shut Downs". These two combined are killing supplies arriving locally. Price gouging thrown in for good measure does not help things and fuels panic even to those not buying.

Simply put I think it is production not being able to keep up with supply. The special situation is not allowing for a surge in producing as we would normally expect. Eventually it will catch up. I know manufacturers must not overproduce or the glut will depress the market later. They hire extra crews (when they are able) only to lay them off when a huge stockpile eventually develops. A more stable market is desirable but not always possible.

I may be wrong but it takes motivation and covert skill to produce a true conspiracy. Is there really a pay off to one? I personally think it's just a really unusual combination of factors appearing all at once. The common phrase you hear "Strange Times" certainly is befitting. Our Church (yes we are resumed in having in-person services) just finished a 3 month study on John's Revelation and now we are back at Genesis. COVID and crazy Marxist politicians indeed have tried to suppress even this to maintain a sense of general uncertainty and fear, to hopefully further their cause. Dethrone Trump at any and all costs. It's been reinforced to me afresh that God is in control and has his plan that man cannot stop or alter, as he mistakenly thinks his free-will allows. But I feel pretty secure with it all, do you?

I've found plenty of 9mm twice this week...

Huey
[subject]
Saturday, October 10, 2020, 09:14 (2137 days ago) @ WB

First the Winchester FP stuff I posted about and then some Federal Synthetic Coated FP for $11.99/50. About as good as you can ask for these days.

I still believe the buy it when you find it is best. Buy it when you need it just doesn't work anymore.

THE SIMPLE ANSWER IS

JT
[subject]
Saturday, October 10, 2020, 08:24 (2137 days ago) @ Dave H.

PEOPLE ARE BUYING FASTER THAN COMPANIES ARE PRODUCING. i TREID TO BUY A COUPLE OF .22s THIS MONTH, A HERITAGE RANGE RIDER REVOLVING CARBINE AND A KEL-TEC P17--NONE ARE AVAILAVLE.JUST ORDER AND WAIT. I TRIED TO BUY 1,000 STARLINE 9MM BRASS--BACK-ORDERED BUT 500 .38 SUPERS AND 500 BULLETS, HAP 124 HPs, CAME RIGHT THROUGH.

I ran into the Starline back order too,

steve todd
[subject]
Saturday, October 10, 2020, 09:03 (2137 days ago) @ JT

But they came through pretty quick with the 9mm

Yep, and some companies aren't even allowing

Grover Sr
[subject]
Saturday, October 10, 2020, 09:08 (2137 days ago) @ JT

You to backorder. I have been looking for a Blackhawk 45 as a base gun to send Gary for some work. There are some on GB going for ridiculous prices and the Redhawk 45's just can't seem to be found either.

gun parts are beginning to dry up too

Gary Reeder
[subject]
Saturday, October 10, 2020, 12:21 (2137 days ago) @ JT

We are going to drop our series based on double action Rugers as soon as Colleen gets back and can get them off the web site. We are dropping the custom series based on the Redhawk, GP-100, SP-101, and Super Redhawk due to no parts. We build our own cylinders and barrels but use Ruger's small parts which are non existent. We have our own single action Ruger parts so those series are not effected by this. Also the series based on the 1911 are not effected as we build our own custom 1911s.

every one of you except JT are pretty much off base.

Gary Reeder
[subject]
Saturday, October 10, 2020, 10:49 (2137 days ago) @ Dave H.

When all this crap hit months ago everything in the NE shut down, gun and ammo manufacturers both. Several are still shut down. Companies that have offices in the south are in better shape. Glock has a new plant in Bainbridge Georgia that is helping them a lot. S%W has a plant in the Carolinas, Mossberg has a big plant in Texas and of course Ruger has a plant in the Carolinas plus the Prescott AZ plant. And so on. These are putting out a few guns every day, but not enough to supply the demand. The guns and ammo that do come out goes to distributors. Gun shops have to buy thru distributors. Every morning the distributors call and tell us what we can have, like maybe 1 or 2 guns, and if we are lucky 10 or so boxes of ammo. In most cases we cannot "order" anything or if we do it goes on a never ending back order. Leupold announced last week that they have cancelled all orders for scopes and binocs for the rest of the year.

As far as the prices, they have gone up a dollar or two, and some considerably more but there are still shops that are gouging with ammo running at least a dollar a round. Recently at a gun show near here 9mm ammo was going for $80 to $90 a box of 50. Bricks of 22 LR for $70 and more. And other ammo just as much or more.

Our rifle rack is maybe one 4th full. Our handgun showcases maybe half of what is normal. But again we can't just get on the horn and order more. Most companies have a recording telling us they are not open for order taking.

So it isn't gun shops holding ammo back to jack up the prices, it is the fact that we can't get product. Everything from our distributors is allocated. If a distributor gets 6 S&W revolvers (which ain't gonna happen) and they have 15 sales people somebody gets the short end of the stick. Even the cheaper guns like the SCCY pistols are allocated. Taurus G2C and G3 are going for as much as $500 and $600 when you can find them. These are guns that we sold for $250 and $300 a year ago.

The manufacturers are putting out as much ammo as they can. Assembly lines can only put out a certain amount of ammo in a day and they are doing so. People that have never bought a gun are doing so and buying ammo to go along with it. It is not that folks are hoarding or buying ammo and guns to go out on Sunday and shooting up 200 rounds or so. People are scared. they are buying guns for protection. At least half the guns we are selling are being bought by women, and most as a first time gun. I have had people come in and tell me to my face that they hate guns and would never have even thought about having on in their house, but they feel they need one. So this situation isn't about the manufacturers not making as much product as they can. The NICS check are running close to 100,000 calls a day, more that ever before and that doesn't count the guns that are being bought at gun shows with no paperwork, like the situation with folks that can't afford to buy a new handgun or an AR-15 pulling their Winchester or Marlin 30-30s out of the closet and buying ammo for them. There is a big rush on 30-30 ammo right now. And how many ammo manufacturers took that into consideration. What it breaks down to is the manufacturers simply cannot keep up with the demand, especially with some still being shut down in the NE.
It is a situation this country has never experienced before and truthfully I don't expect it to get any better in the near future. And after the election it may well get much worse.

Bainbridge GA

Dustin
[subject]
Saturday, October 10, 2020, 20:06 (2137 days ago) @ Gary Reeder

Taurus is in Bainbridge. The Glock plant is in Smyrna.

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