this note is from one of our distributors

gary reeder
[subject]
Saturday, May 22, 2021, 21:06 (1909 days ago)

This is from one of our main distributors. This is for your information only and the name of the distributor will not be released. It is for those that think this shortage will be over in a few weeks and is just for your information, not to scare the chittlings out of you. Consider it as such.

PRICE INCREASES UPCOMING and NEW INFORMATION
!
WOLF PRODUCTS - Manufacturer does not anticipate any fills in 2021 at this time
WE HAVE SUSPENDED BACKORDERS ON MANY ITEMS AT THIS TIME.
PRIMER BACKORDERS REMAIN SUSPENDED AT THIS TIME.
We are very unlikely to take a backorder for any WInchester/Remington primers in 2021.
We have massive amounts of backorders to fill from 2020 that are very unlikely to be filled in 2021.

UPCOMING ANNOUNCED MANUFACTURER PRICING INCREASES
Alliant Powders - Updated as of May 15th, 2021
Starline Brass - Updated as of May 1st, 2021
Hornady BRASS/Bullets - Manufacturer price increase June 1st (7-12%)
Remington Products - Manufacturer increase in progress
Winchester Brass and Bullets - Updated as of May 1st, 2021
Winchester Primers - Updated as of May 1st, 2021

ALL PRICES SUBJECT TO CHANGE / PRICES INCLUDE SHIPPING TO THE LOWER 48 STATES!
WOLF PRODUCTS - Manufacturer does not anticipate any fills in 2021 at this time
WE HAVE SUSPENDED BACKORDERS ON MANY LINES AT THIS TIME.


Due to unprecedented demand, most items will never appear on the “in stock” report at this time. As many
of you know, the few items that appear go very quickly when the report comes out.
Backorders have priority when product arrives and we never seem to clear those on most items. Many
items are still not coming in at all, but we are doing the best we can with what does arrive.
Please put what you want on backorder vs waiting for the “in stock” report. This is far from ideal, as it
would simplify our lives significantly to just have the products when you call, but this is the hand we are
all dealt at this time. We have no idea on when this might start to flow more freely.
Please verify your backorders and get what you need on backorder.
POWDER BACKORDERS REMAIN SUSPENDED AT THIS TIME.

This will be a long process to fill and we will allocate as product arrives, but temper expectations. Thank you for your understanding.

Ok, I wonder if more is involved here besides Covid?

Grover Sr
[subject]
Sunday, May 23, 2021, 03:34 (1909 days ago) @ gary reeder

Seems like with the decrease in Covid cases manufacturing should be increasing. It would be interesting to track down where the real delays are occurring such as in raw materials, labor, imports etc. Hopefully as more states opt out of the Covid expanded unemployment benefits program manufacturing will get back to normal.Even so, the genie is out of the bottle and prices will never get back to pre-Covid levels.

Thanks

Shortage

Rw
[subject]
Sunday, May 23, 2021, 16:22 (1909 days ago) @ Grover Sr

My son is a Mercedes-Benz salesman in fort Worth their inventory is less than half of what it normally is. There is a huge shortage of microchips he said one of the main factories that makes them burnt down. Just being me I don't think it's a coincidence.

Due to crazy demand with people uneasy

WB
[subject]
Sunday, May 23, 2021, 05:57 (1909 days ago) @ gary reeder

With the state of affairs and production down for so long due to shut-downs, then the Gov./State unemployment benefit programs being so lucrative it will simply take time. It will be a feat if many of the small shops can stay with it that long. It’s hard to meet overhead costs with nothing to stock or sell in your store. Lord help them.

I feel irresponsible firing a cap for sheer pleasure.

Batten down, looks like it’s going to be tough for another 6+ months with production lags. Maybe much longer on some specific items. I’ve cut back to almost no fun target shooting with cartridge firearms. Just me. Not sure what I’m saving it for but it’s not much fun anymore, seems a more serious business. Hopefully mid-terms will give a sense of political ease of tension, but I doubt it.

There must be more to the story ….

Dave H.
[subject]
Sunday, May 23, 2021, 06:40 (1909 days ago) @ WB

Two examples….1. Toilet paper. The “shortage” at the beginning of the pandemic China-flu didn’t last long at all. Seems unusual that it didn’t become more difficult to obtain or more rationing didn’t take place as the lock-downs continued. I’m not sure why?

I live on the Gulf Coast. Hurricanes are a way of life here, and that means shortages are a way of life as well. I’m a firm believer in that panic sends people into a buying spree, and a bump in the cost is actually *good* for supply…more will enter the marketplace to satisfy demand and therefore make a profit. Even during the big storms…most recently Sally, but Ivan and Katrina and Harvey before that….at the worst, we are without power/gas/groceries for 7 days. Generally we expect a 72 hour period of nothing being available. But it’s all back to normal pretty soon - within weeks.
Even building materials are available here….pricey and with Canadian import issues due to COVID…..but I can get anything I need lumber-wise. Why not ammo?

So what’s with ammo? Is it raw materials? Made over seas? Low inventory all the time?
Everyone has to use toilet paper. Not everyone shoots or owns a gun. Everyone uses gasoline, unless you believe in EVs (which can’t be recharged without power post-landfall). Houses are being built like crazy….even during lockdowns.
Point is, almost every other “consumable” is back to “normal” and yet ammo is not. Wonder why that is? I’m not a conspiracy nut by any means, I’m just looking and the situation and continuing to ask why.

Exactly my sentiment Dave

Grover Sr
[subject]
Sunday, May 23, 2021, 07:22 (1909 days ago) @ Dave H.

- No text -

There is more to the story... It called "human behavior"

Marco
[subject]
Sunday, May 23, 2021, 15:09 (1909 days ago) @ Dave H.

DaveH; The ammo shortage is being caused by a couple of predictable factirs; people who like being prepared don't like to do without and people that like being prepared pay attention. Most "gun" people are pretty tuned in to their surroundings. They pay attention and are situationally aware. That's why they are involved with firearms. Yes, they are recreational, and "fun" and used for hunting; but most gun people just like being prepared for the worst case scenario. I'd venture a good bit of fiat currency that not too many on here were on the short side of the roll during the t.p. "shortage". Most probably have a reasonable supply to get them through. Well, when it comes to choices, you can wipe your hind end with just about anything, leaves, rags, twigs, grass clippings; modern Americans won't but so be it. Your firearm needs a specific thing. Now, I haven't "had" to buy ammo or reloading components since the last "shortage". Picked up a few items here and there for wants. Didn't need to, been stocking up and reloading for as long as I can remember, well not that long, but let's say a while. The new entries to the arena are panicking, with good cause; they see the writing on the wall and realise they are way behind. The same thing is about to happen with precious metals when the money system fails, only that will effect everyone. You've seen the pictures of idiots filling plastic bags with gasoline, right? Add to the new entrants the fact that supply chains are failing, commodities are in short supply and every swinging dick is buying all the ammo he can and that pretty well sums up our current situation. Also, be aware: America is no longer a producing nation; we are a nation of consumers. No way in hell we could produce 100 Liberty Ships a day now...Get ready for the Great Reset gentlemen, it is on it's way... My 3 cents (inflation adjusted) your mileage may vary, look both ways before crossing the street, brush between meals and be kind to others......

Dave, you are way off base here mainly due to one thing

gary reeder
[subject]
Sunday, May 23, 2021, 16:10 (1909 days ago) @ Dave H.

your comment "Point is, almost every other “consumable” is back to “normal”. Right now nothing is back to normal. The toilet paper shortage was a joke, probably started by a couple of housewives that couldn't get the brand of TP they wanted and posted it on Facebook and that was all that was needed to start the rush. There was plenty of TP to go around, until people stated hoarding and buying it by the car load.
A friend at a car dealership mentioned they cannot get the cars and trucks the people want. Car parts are non existent. I just had work done on my Ford and it took weeks to get parts. A friend who owns a large furniture store said his warehouse is empty and he can't get anything to fill it up. The radio station where I cut my commercials for the shop has had to lay off most of their sales, people as why should their clients advertise when they don't have anything to sell. Any manufacturing plant that was shut down for close to a year is either having problems getting the metals, chemicals and other items they need to get back to making products or they are still shut down and may not open again.

Many of the products we need to build and finish our custom guns are way behind. We are getting some guns out but not as many as I would like. Our customers have been extremely patient and I appreciate that, but we are not getting as many guns finished as I would like. Most of the materials we need to finish the guns are way behind. Items that normally take 2 weeks to get are now taking 3 to 4 months, if then.

Very few of our distributors have any accessories in stock. Everything is back ordered. No gun shop can order anything. Some of the gun manufacturers and ammo manufacturers are putting out some product, but very little. When they do they ship it to our distributors. Our distributors call us every morning and tell us something like..."we got 10 guns in last night, we can let you have 3 that you had back ordered." Or "we got a case of 9mm ammo in yesterday, we can let you have 6 boxes". That is how it is going. Mainly the things we are getting are what are on our back orders. The ammo supplies are not the only thing that is in very short supply. Try buying an RCBS press. Or any reloading supplies. Try finding primers at less than $400 to $850 per brick. Try finding powder. Most of it is sitting in container ships off the coast of California. And why won't they let them dock and unload the powder. No, "every other consumable" is not back to normal. Not by a long shot.

Building materials are available but at 300% to 400% higher prices than a year ago. Ammunition is over a billion rounds behind. Why? Because people are scared and won't quit buying. Our dealer magazine said there are between 8 and 10 million new gun owners today. They know nothing about what they should do and their friends are telling them they need to get 1000 rounds of ammo just in case. The dealer's magazine says the average gun guy goes into his gun shop one, maybe 2 times a week and normally buys something once a week. The new gun buyers are going into their gun shop everyday and they buy something every week, usually several somethings, mostly ammo. If each of those 10 million new gun buyers buys a box of 50 rounds of ammo 5 days a week, that is 250 rounds of ammo. Now multiply that times 10 million. What is that, 2.5 billion rounds per week? There is where our ammo is going.

Steve Hornady is a good friend. We built the very first 17 HMR revolver for him. He has 3 1/2 shifts going 24/7 365 days a year trying to catch up. With 2.5 billion rounds going out the doors of the guns shops every week, do you think he is going to catch up?

That new Remington plant in Lonoke Arkansas is cranking ammo out as fast as they can, but like every other ammo manufacturer brass and lead are in extremely short supply. Our plants for brass and lead here in the states were for the most part shut down by Obama so now they depend upon supplies from South America.

You saw the list of companies above that are not taking orders and those that are not expecting to deliver anything in 2021.

The shortage is real and I don't see it getting any better anytime soon. And no, every other consumable is not back to normal, nor any where near back to normal.

A lot of people don't realize

Randy Barnett
[subject]
Sunday, May 23, 2021, 10:06 (1909 days ago) @ gary reeder

there is a big shortage of truck drivers right now. I don't know if it's due to the extra unemployment benefits or what. Our facility has delayed shipments to our customers simply because we cannot get component parts in. The parts are at our suppliers waiting for trucks to deliver. There is supposedly a large number of container ships at the docks in California waiting to be unloaded, but no drivers for delivery.

It's a demographic trend....

Marco
[subject]
Sunday, May 23, 2021, 11:10 (1909 days ago) @ Randy Barnett

The truck driver shortage is not due to unemployment benefit issues. Truck drivers inter and intrastate make well above unemployment level. Other logistical factors are also involved due to warehouse staff being lessened due to the "Cerveca Sickness" and supply chain frailties due to the modern just in time inventory theory. It has more to do with demographics. The average age of the US driver pool is 42. Many driver's are retiring and few young people are interested in entering the field. Same thing appears to be happening in the automotive field where car dealers and repair shops lack for even minimally qualified applicants. Jobs are unfilled in most trades, electricians, plumbers etc., the younger people don't want to earn a living with their hands but would rather spend an exorbitant amount on a bachelors degree and take a low paying job as opposed to making much higher wages from the sweat of their brow.

Excellent points. I think you nailed it.

RonE
[subject]
Sunday, May 23, 2021, 11:53 (1909 days ago) @ Marco

- No text -

Thanks RonE... But it's just what the market research shows.

Marco
[subject]
Sunday, May 23, 2021, 14:38 (1909 days ago) @ RonE

Maybe we can get together and convince the CME Group to put ammo on the COMEX futures market just like gold, silver, corn, pork bellies, wheat and the like... then they can create derivatives of the ammo market, paper ammo you really can't shoot but have a claim on, kinda like everything else that's driving the market now... maybe that might work to calm everything down.... our financial system is in such peril and it is starting to effect every thing down stream. Secure the hatches!

I partially agree with you but not totally

gary reeder
[subject]
Sunday, May 23, 2021, 15:23 (1909 days ago) @ Marco

the job market is full of unfilled openings but not because of the points you made. The problem is money. I need 2 machinists right now but nobody is interested, not because of the points you made but because of money. People get $420 a week unemployment, plus another $400 on top of that from the government and if they have kids that adds up another couple hundred. If you made $1000 a week doing absolutely nothing would you want to give it up and go to work? I doubt it. So it has nothing to do with demographics. It is all about money and that is how the Democrats plan to bring this country down, by turning our young people into totally dependent upon the government.

Yes, I guess you are right once again....

Marco
[subject]
Sunday, May 23, 2021, 15:39 (1909 days ago) @ gary reeder

and I agree that that is their agenda but when and why did we lose our work ethic? I remember when men would take ANY job so as not to be on "public assistance i.e. welfare". No one has any skills and wants to make top dollar, so of course they will stay home and take the "free" money, you are right. With a little effort and the right training people can make a good living in the USA, they just don't want to make the effort I guess...

Agreed. There are a lot of factors in play. This would sure

RonE
[subject]
Sunday, May 23, 2021, 15:44 (1909 days ago) @ Marco

make for an interesting discussion around the campfire :)

I have to agree! Talked to guy at church

Derek
[subject]
Sunday, May 23, 2021, 15:47 (1909 days ago) @ gary reeder

His employer along with others in our area have had job fairs. Offering good sign on bonuses, only to have 6 people show up, and only 3 of those came back for an interview. It's hard to get people to go to work when being paid to stay home.

This may sound odd but

John W
[subject]
Monday, May 24, 2021, 03:14 (1908 days ago) @ Randy Barnett

I wonder how many young people could pass the CDL test? Also I do believe there is a drug test issue. Many young people today smoke and use recreationally now that many states have decriminalized the use of marijuana but it is still illegal at the federal level and many businesses do screen.

powered by my little forum